Ministry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology icon

Ministry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology




Скачати 84.13 Kb.
НазваMinistry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology
Дата конвертації01.06.2013
Розмір84.13 Kb.
ТипДокументи


Ministry of Education of Ukraine

Lviv National University named after I.Franko

Faculty of Geology

Department of Ecological and Engineering Geology and Hydrogeology

APPROVED”

by the Dean of the Faculty

“ ____” ___________ 2002

Syllabus




Subject: MODELING AND FORECAST OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

Educational level: specialists

Specialty: 70708, Ecology and Environmental Protection

Form of tuition: Fulltime

Extract from Educational Curriculum


Semester

Total hours

Lectures

Labs

Course assignment

test

Exam

IX

46

16

30

-

-

+

Compiled by: V.V.Karabin, assistant professor


Considered at the Recommended by

Ecological and Engineering Geology and Methodological Council of

Hydrogeology Department meeting Faculty of Geology


Head of the Department Head of the Methodological

___________ Lebedinetz, assistant professor ___________ Pavlun M.M.

“____” __________2003 “_____” ____________2003.


2002

^ I. GOAL AND TASKS OF THE COURSE

1.1. GOAL OF STUDYING THE COURSE

Evaluation of environmental conditions makes it necessary to create a model corresponding to its lithosphere position. More over, accuracy and adequacy of the model of the environmental object under research directly depends on quantity of information, its quality, model scale, aims of modeling, etc. Process of modeling during ecological research plays a special role. Within the limit of this kind of research, it is meant to consider the procedure of modeling. From one hand, it is an informational cartographic system allowing to evaluate processes taking place in natural environment, on the other hand – a model makes it possible to directly evaluate elements of environment, their condition, stability, etc. This procedure is meant to be considered from the point of view of this research. Forecast procedure is based on scientific prognosis of correspondent processes taking place in natural environment, directly or indirectly affecting its condition and controlling ecological situation.

The quintessence of the process of modeling is design of mathematic models and making reliable forecasts on the basis of these models.

The course deals with main scientific and methodological approaches to prognosis evaluation of environmental conditions on the basis of previously designed models. It also studies methods of mathematical modeling on the basis of specific photographic and cartographic data received.

Upon completion of theoretical course and practicum, students should acquire practical skills for designing models and making forecasts of ecological conditions of natural environment.

^ 1.2. Peculiarities of Teaching the Course

The following peculiarities should be taken into account when teaching this course to students of group ГЛЕ-51, which are studying for the diploma of specialist, and since then, upon graduation, will be working in practical geological modalities (expeditions, parties), regional and district departments of Ministry of Ecology and Natural resources of Ukraine, other kinds of enterprises. It is necessary to teach such students to design real models of environmental conditions using existing technical and programming resources. Due to this fact, the students taking this course will attend 1 hr per week of lectures and 2 hrs per week of laboratory practicum. This proportion will allow students to receive good practical skills of designing real models of environmental conditions.

The analytical basis for future models will be derived from the results of tests and observations collected by students during hours of practicum. Due to the fact that some students might have special data requiring special methods of mathematical modeling, part of labs and home assignments may be carried out on an individual basis. The aim of this syllabus is to represent general topics of lectures and laboratories in the first place.

Models designed in the course of studying “Modeling and Forecast of Environmental Conditions” will serve as a foundation for diploma projects of students.


^ 2. CONTENTS OF THE COURSE



week

Topics and contents of lectures

hours

^ Topics of labs. Main projects and assignments

hrs

1


Lecture 1. Definition of system and structure Hierarchy of systems in the environment. Model and environmental modeling.

Generally speaking, a system is a unity of objects connected with each other in a certain way. Properties of the system are determined by interconnections between objects which are parts of the systems. Objects forming a system are called elements or subsystems in the event they will be in their turn further considered as systems. The main feature of a system is a property of emergentness. Emergentness feature is a demonstration of the system unity ensured by interconnection of all its elements by definite types of connections and relations. The totality of connections and relations between elements of the system is the structure of the system.

Definition of multiple, hierarchic and united vision of a system. Function of an element. Functional and processing vision of a system.

Formal point and formal space. Elementary formal space.

2



Laboratory № 1. Study of structure and possibilities of а Spread­sheet of Statistica program.

  1. study the structure of a Spread­sheet.

  2. study functional abilities of a Spread­sheet.

  3. study forms of variables in a Spread­sheet. Determining of indicators of variables and brief review. Transition between numeric and text form of representation of variables.

Editing names of variables. Commentary for variables.

2

22

Model. Different approaches to determination of properties and functions of a model. Models of objects and processes of environment.

Types of models (material and imaginary). Groups of models. Peculiar features of different types and groups.






Laboratory № 2. practicing main operations with variable in electronic table.

  1. study ways of performing main commands..

  2. recalculation of variables connected to primary formula.

  3. shift of variable value for n number of cases.

  4. distribution of variables by order.

  5. recoding of variables.

  6. calculation of main statistics and design of diagrams using the window of current certifications.






2

3

2 3-4

Lecture 2. collection and preliminary evaluation of initial information on environmental conditions.

Types of information on environmental conditions. Scale for measuring parameters: nominal, ordinal, interval and scale of relations.

^ Data from Earth sciences: hypothetic, existing, verified. Accuracy and reliability of test results. Point and interval statistic evaluations.

Trusted possibility or reliability. Boundaries of trusted interval. Average square deviation from test results. Average square deviation. Methods of creation of trusted intervals.




2

Laboratory № 3. Study of the Structure of specialized module of Data Management.

  1. create a new file using the data from current file.

  2. sort the data.

  3. study global operations for working with variables.

  4. check the name and formats of variables in the current file.

  5. standardization of variables values

  6. replace missing values for average value of correspondent variable.

  7. creation of megafile.

  8. study of specific operations with megafiles.

  9. changing of regular file with extension *.sta into a megafile with extension *.mfm






4










  1. combine two files with data.

  2. record macro command using keyboard.

  3. record commentary of a macro command.

  4. record a macro command containing steps recorded by a mouse.

  5. creation of a new button on instrument panel.







15

Lecture 3. Random values and types of their subdivisions.

Normal subdivision. Its characteristics and importance of data verification selection in light of correspondence to normal distribution in processing of ecological and geological information. Rules of 2-х and 3-х standard deviations.

Even distribution.

Gamma – distribution.

Lognormal distribution.

Хі – square – distribution

Binormal distribution.

Separable binormal distribution

Distribution of Poisson

Geometric distribution

Hypergeometric distribution

Polinominal distribution

Beta distribution

Student distribution




2

Laboratory № 4. determination of type of distribution of variable.

  1. Study algorithm for determination of type of distribution of variable using Statistica package of programs.

  2. Visualizing distribution of variable with the help of histogram. Grouping data. Diagrams of dispersion. Diagrams of dispersion and histograms. Diagrams of dispersion and diagrams of swing.

  3. Normal and probability diagrams. Diagrams of diapasons. Diagrams of swing. Columnar diagrams. Linear diagrams (diagram of variables and observation profile). Circular diagrams. Diagrams with omitted values and intervals. Diagrams of user functions.

study of methods of transition of variables. (normalization, logarithmization, etc.)



2




Importance of determination of the type of distribution for modeling problems and forecast of environmental conditions. Principles of ascertaining of necessary volume for specific evaluation of general unity.






  1. fundamentals of 3-dimensional visual analysis







56






2

Laboratory № 5.

calculation of optimal quantity of trials for ecological geological shooting with the scale 1 : 25000


2

67-8

Lecture 4. Multidimensional random values. System of two random values. Multiplication correlation.

On one and the same site of elementary event, for example on the site for ecological geological shooting, it is possible to distinguish several random values. There may exist possibility of connections between these values ascertaining which makes it possible to optimize ecological geological research.

System of two discrete random values (X, Y) and their numeric characteristics.

Basic numeric characteristics for random values X, Y forming the system

(X, Y).

Covariation.



2


Laboratory № 6.

Calculation of coefficients of correlation for systems of data on environmental conditions.

Calculate coefficients of correlation using Statistica package of programs.

Visualize and edit received results of correlation analysis.

Interpretation of correlation analysis results in light of the aims of research.



4

7

Correlation moment.

Coefficient of correlation, its properties. Conditional laws of division of systems of two discrete random values and their numeric characteristics. Pairs of coefficients of correlation. Partial coefficients of correlation.

Correlation regressive analysis of actual data of environmental conditions.











89

Lecture 5. Forecast of environmental conditions using method of regressive analysis.

Mathematical fundamentals of regressive analysis.

Peculiarities of application of regressive analysis for forecasts of environmental conditions.

Exponential regressive model.

Normal regressive model.

Lognormal regressive model.



2

Laboratory № 7. Design of linear regressive model of a process on the basis of data obtained by many years’ monitoring of environmental conditions.

  1. Formulation of tasks for design of a regressive model.

  2. Selection of variable for analysis and calculation of regressive model.

  3. Processing of results of regressive analysis.

  4. Analysis of “remainders”.

  5. Transfer of results into reporting file.



2

910







Laboratory № 8. Design of multiple regressive process model on the basis of data obtained from many years’ monitoring of environmental conditions.

Formulation of a task for design of a regressive model.




2










  1. Creation of electronic table with outcome data.

  2. Transformation of outcome data.

  3. Selection of variable for analysis and calculation of a regressive model.

  4. Processing results of regressive analysis.

  5. Analysis of “remainders”.

  6. Transfer of results into reporting file.







111

Lecture 6. Non-parametric statistics.

FI – coefficient.

Criterion хі – square of McNemar.

Correlation of Speerman.

Correlation of tau Kendel.

Correlation of Gamma.

Criterion of Valda-Volfovitz series.

U – criterion of Mann - Vitni.

Criterion of Kolmogorov - Smirnov.

ANOVA of Craskel – Vollis and median test.

Criterion of indicators.

Criterion of Villcockson.



2

Laboratory № 9.

Comparison of distribution of chemical elements in different horizons of soil profile for ecological geochemical research.

Comparison of contents of chemical elements in two horizons of soil profile by method of Kolgomorov- Smirnov.

Comparison of contents of chemical elements in three or more horizons of soil profile by method of Kolgomorov-Smirnov.





2

12-13

Lecture 7. Design of models using the method of main components.

Mathematical fundamentals of method of main components.

Main components and factor analysis.

Setting a task of environmental conditions with the purpose of solving it by means of factor analysis. Mathematical fundamentals of factor analysis. Calculation of initial estimates of factor loads. Rotation of vectors.

Peculiarities of applications of factor analysis to solving problems of environmental conditions.

2

Laboratory №10.

Analysis of time rows and forecast for process under research.

  1. Study of mathematical fundamentals of analysis of standard time rows.

  2. Selection of data for analysis

  3. Study of the structure of dialogue ARIMA.

  4. Transformation of a time row.

  5. Design of a time row, type INTERRUPTED ARIMA.

  6. Conduction of exponential smoothing of a time row.

  7. Conduction of a forecast.

Analysis of a forecast.

4

114







Laboratory № 11

Determination of para-genetic associations of chemical elements using factor analysis.

Preparation of selection for factor analysis.

Determination of optimal quantity of factors depending on ecological geological tasks.

Calculation of factor loading table and its interpretation.

Visualizing data of factor loading table.

Interactive graphic analysis of data.


2

15

Lecture 8. Analysis of space changes.

Space changes and level of dependability of particular values of space variables from space coordinates.

Mathematical fundamentals of studying laws of objects spreading on the basis of chain theory of Markov.

Division and correlation of cross-sections according to complex of features.

Application of Radionov criterion for solving problems of decomposition of a cross-section.

Peculiarities of application of methods of space changes analysis when solving ecological-geological problems.


2

Laboratory № 12

Determination of territories for revealing factors of geochemical process by method of factor analysis.

Calculation of factor scores table.

Separation of abnormal sites.

Visualizing results in the form of diagrams and maps.

Ascertaining main agents of geochemical process.

2

16







Laboratory № 13 Determination of geochemical barrier with the help of results obtained by factor analysis and space changes analysis.

Determination of strong geochemical para-genetic associations in horizons of soil profile.

Analysis of characteristics of soil profile using Radionov’s criterion.

Comparison of results of both types of statistics analysis and determination of geochemical barriers.

2





Схожі:

Ministry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology iconMinistry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology

Ministry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology iconMinistry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology

Ministry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology iconMinistry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology

Ministry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology iconMinistry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology

Ministry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology iconMinistry of Education and Science of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology

Ministry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology iconMinistry of Education and Science of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology

Ministry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology iconMinistry of Education and Science of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology

Ministry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology iconMinistry of Education and Science of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology

Ministry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology iconMinistry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology
Тopic (2 hrs). General definitions of relief: forms of relief and its elements, classification of forms of relief as to their external...
Ministry of Education of Ukraine Lviv National University named after I. Franko Faculty of Geology iconMinistry of Education and Science of Ukraine Zhytomyr State University named after Ivan Franko, Ukraine

Додайте кнопку на своєму сайті:
Документи


База даних захищена авторським правом ©te.zavantag.com 2000-2017
При копіюванні матеріалу обов'язкове зазначення активного посилання відкритою для індексації.
звернутися до адміністрації
Документи